Inventory: Only Challenge to the Real Estate Recovery

The real estate market is in the midst of a major comeback. Sales are greater than any time since 2007. Consumer confidence is increasing. Economists are now saying housing is the major tailwind to our nation’s overall economic recovery.

However, there is one major challenge that could stall the housing market: a lack of inventory.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) latest Existing Home Sales Report:

“Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 8.5 percent to 1.82 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.8 months in November, and is the lowest housing supply since May of 2005 when it was 4.3 months, which was near the peak of the housing boom.

Listed inventory is 21.6 percent below a year ago when there was a 6.4-month supply. Raw unsold inventory is at the lowest level since January 2001 when there were 1.78 million homes on the market.”

A recent survey by Redfin reveals that the challenge seems to be continuing into 2013. New listings taken in the first 14 days of the year decreased by 30% as compared to the first two weeks of 2012.

A lack of supply will be good news for prices in the short term. However, for a long term recovery in housing, an increase in current inventory is crucial.

Home prices see best yearly gain since 2006

By Leah Schnurr

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home prices rose in November to rack up their best yearly gain since the housing crisis began, a further sign that the sector is on the mend.
But data on consumer confidence on Tuesday was less encouraging, with moods falling to their lowest level in more than a year as Americans became more pessimistic about the economic outlook and their financial prospects.

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.6 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with economists' forecasts.
Prices in the 20 cities rose 5.5 percent year over year, making for the strongest yearly price increase since August 2006 when prices were on their way down.

"This is continuing a trend in place for the better part of a year," said Omair Sharif, U.S. economist at RBS Securities in New York. "This is another indication that the housing rebound is fairly entrenched at this point."

The housing market became a bright spot for the economy last year as prices rose and inventory tightened. The sector is expected to contribute to economic growth in 2013, though a number of challenges remain, including tight access to mortgages and on-going foreclosures.

It was the 10th month in a row that prices have increased, the longest string of gains since before 2006. Last year's rise in prices beat a nine-month consecutive run in 2009 and 2010, when the market was boosted by a homebuyer tax credit.

Separate data from The Conference Board showed an index of consumer attitudes fell to 58.6 in January from an upwardly revised 66.7 the month before, falling short of economists' expectations for 64. It was the lowest level since November 2011.

At the start of the year, U.S. politicians came to an agreement that averted the so-called fiscal cliff of spending cuts and tax increases that had been set to come into effect.

But the deal did raise taxes for many Americans, while a payroll tax holiday came to an end. Also, a number of budget decisions remain.

"Consumers are probably pretty unhappy to notice that their payroll taxes have gone up," said David Sloan, economist at 4Cast Ltd in New York.

U.S. stocks pared slight gains immediately after the report was released, while the euro rose to a session high against the dollar.

The expectations index tumbled to its lowest level since October 2011 at 59.5 from 68.1. The present situation measure slipped to 57.3 from 64.6.

Consumers' views on the labor market were also weaker, with the "jobs hard to get" index rising for the first time since September.

Home prices on a non-adjusted basis slipped 0.1 percent. The non-adjusted numbers showed prices fell in about half of the cities covered by the survey, with the winter months typically a weak period for housing, the survey said.

Phoenix, which saw its housing market rebound sharply last year, led with the biggest yearly gain at 22.8 percent. New York was the only city to fall, down 1.2 percent from the previous year.
(Additional reporting by Richard Leong and Chris Reese; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

5 Real Estate Trends to Look For in 2013

Predicting trends during volatile economic times in American is no easy task. However, we are going to give it our best shot. We strongly believe these are the five real estate items we should keep an eye on in 2013:

Demand for Housing Will Continue to Surge

The housing market has turned the corner and there is no reason to believe that buyer demand will not maintain momentum throughout 2013. Household formations shot up to boom-time levels in 2012 and are projected to increase at even a faster rate over the next twelve months. A lack of inventory will be more of a challenge to sales increases than will a lack of demand.

Generations X and Y Will Prove They Believe in Homeownership

Contrary to what many have hypothesized over the last few years, young adults (18-35 year olds) are just as committed to homeownership as previous generations. Recent studies have shown:

• 43% already own a home
• 72% see homeownership as part of their personal American Dream
• 93% of those currently renting plan to buy a home

This, along with the increase in household formations mentioned above, makes us believe that 2013 will be the year that many of these young adults will jump into homeownership.

Prices Will Continue to Increase

Pricing of any item is determined by supply and demand. Demand for housing will remain strong throughout 2013. At the same time, the supply of homes ready for is shrinking in many parts of the country. Outside of a few states that still have challenges with large inventories of distressed properties (NY, NJ, CT, IL for example), prices will appreciate nicely.
Even in the areas that are still dealing with high percentages of foreclosures and short sales, prices will not tumble dramatically. The increase in demand will absorb much of this inventory. In these areas, prices will either flatten or perhaps soften to a small degree.

Move-Up Sellers Will Return in Great Numbers

Perhaps what many will find as the biggest surprise of 2013 will be the return of the ‘move-up’ seller. Over the last several years negative equity has prevented many of these sellers from moving up to the house of their dreams. However, with prices recovering, more and more of these sellers will realize that now may be their greatest opportunity to make the move to a lifestyle they always wanted.
With home prices expected to increase and more stringent mortgage qualifications (QR and QRM) scheduled to be announced this year, we believe that the first half of the year will bring many of these sellers/buyers to the market.

The Consumer Will Demand That Their Agent Be an Expert

Real Estate professionals who have invested the money, time and energy to truly understand what is happening and why it is happening will separate themselves from their competition and do very well this year.
Those who take that next step of learning how to simply and effectively communicate the market to their clients will be seen as experts. These industry leaders will dominate their markets.

Housing: Year End Reports Reveal Market Coming Back

Every year-end housing report revealed that the real estate market is recovering quite nicely. Here is a quick synopsis of each:

Existing Home Sales Report

• Total existing-home sales rose 5.9 percent in November over last month
• Sales are 14.5 percent higher than November 2011
• Sales are at the highest level since November 2009
• The national median existing-home price was $180,600 in November, up 10.1 percent from November 2011
• Total housing inventory at the end of November fell to a 4.8-month supply; it was 5.3 months in October, and is the lowest housing supply since September of 2005 when it was 4.6 months

Pending Sales Report

• Pending home sales increased in November for the third straight month and reached the highest level in two-and-a-half years
• The index is at the highest level since April 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit
• With the exception of several months affected by tax stimulus, the last time there was a higher reading was in February 2007
• On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales have risen for 19 consecutive months

New Home Sales Report

• Sales of new homes rose 4.4% in November to a two-and-a-half-year high
• This is the highest level since April 2010, when a temporary tax credit boosted demand.
• Sales are now 15.3% higher compared to one year ago

Case Shiller Home Price Index

• Home prices rose 4.3% in the 12 months ending in October
• In nineteen of the 20 cities covered, annual returns in October were higher than September

How Small Cutbacks Lead to Great Savings [INFOGRAPHIC]

Housing Recovery Continues To Take Shape Despite Superstorm Sandy And Looming Fiscal Cliff

Morgan Brennan, Forbes Staff

Business 11/19/2012 @ 12:43PM

A nascent recovery in housing continues to make modest gains, despite a devastating storm and the looming fiscal cliff.  Two market indicators –completed sales of resold homes and home builder sentiment — have risen in recent weeks, bolstering economists’ assertions that the sector has bottomed and begun a painfully slow rebound.

Nationally, U.S. existing-home sales jumped 2.1% in October from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.79 million home sales annually, according to the National Association of Realtors. It represents a nearly 11% increase in sales activity from a year earlier. Existing home sales entail completed sales of single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops.

The national uptick comes despite the devastating effects of Superstorm Sandy, which pummeled the Eastern coast of the U.S. on October 29.  Locally, however, the natural disaster caused a drop in sales in the Northeast as power outages delayed transactions and some lenders demanded new inspections post-storm. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of NAR, has projected that home sales in the region will continue to slow in November and December due to delays, likely rebounding in the early months of 2013. The anticipated temporary plunge could  weigh down the national sales average in coming months as well.

Nonetheless, “Home sales continue to trend up and most October transactions were completed by the time the storm hit, but the growing demand with limited inventory is pressuring home prices in much of the country,” said Yun in a statement.  At the current sales pace, the country’s inventory supply would be exhausted in 5.4 months. A six-month pace is generally considered healthy by economists.
October’s national median sales price rose to $178, 600. It represents an 11% increase from October 2011 and marks the eighth straight month of year-over-year increases, an upward trend last witnessed during the housing peak (from October 2005 to May 2006).  Over the past year, those gains have translated into $760 billion growth in home equity. NAR projects that another $1 trillion will manifest in increased equity 2013.

Growing demand and limited inventory is propping up another key aspect of the housing market as well: builder confidence. Home builder sentiment rose for the seventh straight month in November, hitting its highest level in six and a half years, according to the National Association of Home Builders.  The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index (HMI) rose to 46 from 41 month-over-month, as home builders continued to feel more optimistic about sales conditions for new single-family homes.

Still, the index remains below the 50 mark, indicating that more builders continue to view sales conditions as poor versus ones that view them as favorable.

“We have certainly made substantial progress since this time last year, when the HMI stood at 19,” says David Crowe. chief economist of NAHB, in a statement. “At this point, difficult appraisals and tight lending conditions for builders and buyers remain limiting factors for the burgeoning housing recovery, along with shortages of buildable lots that have begun popping up in certain markets.”

Harmful Effects from Changing the Listing Price?

Harmful Effects from Changing the Listing Price?

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 04:00 AM PST

With the housing market showing signs of a recovery, sellers may think they can list their homes at a higher price and adjust if necessary. That may not be a good strategy. This is a post we ran last year by Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D. — Florida International University (FIU) and Editor of the Journal of Housing Research. To view other research from FIU, visit http://realestate.fiu.edu/. - The KCM Crew

The Research

Are there any negative effects from changing the listing price of a property?  This question haunts Brokers/Agents as well as sellers of property every day.  At present, there does not seem to be a consensus answer to this question within the professional real estate community.  Fortunately, this question was scientifically investigated by John R. Knight. Unfortunately, few know the results of Professor Knight’s research.

In Knight, the impact of changing a property’s listing price is investigated.  Additionally, the types of property that are most likely to experience a price change are also estimated.  The findings from this research indicate that, on average, properties which experience a listing price change take longer to sell and suffer a price discount greater than similar properties.  Furthermore, bigger price changes are found to experience even longer marketing times and greater price discounts.  Finally, as for which properties are most likely to experience a price change, Knight finds that the greater the initial markup; the higher the likelihood that any given property will experience a listing price change.

Implications for Practice

Sellers as well as Brokers/Agents should therefore be aware of the critical necessity of getting the price correct from the start.  Sellers wanting to over list will ultimately take longer to sell and will sell their property for less, on average, according to Knight.  Brokers/Agents’ desire to take a listing and get the price right later will ultimately lead to their working harder according to Knight, and they are not doing their sellers any favors.  Thus, an initial and detailed analysis of the proper price is much more critical than many originally thought.

Interestingly, I have found in my own research that the direction (up or down) of the listing price change does not matter.  A listing price increase and decrease both lead to similar results found in Knight’s work – longer marketing times and lower prices.  Therefore, get the price right from the beginning.  It is best for all.

Endnotes

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[1] Knight, John, R.  (2002).  Listing Price, Time on Market, and Ultimate Selling Price: Causes and Effects of Listing Price Changes.  Real Estate Economics.  30:2, 213-237.