Monday, October 22, 2012

Home Prices On The Rise


Data released this week showed that home prices are continuing to improve, with all cities in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite recording price gains for the third month in a row. 

The Commerce Department also reported that prices of new homes sold in August soared compared with the month before, rising a record 11.2%. 

But if you want to get the best idea of whether a housing market is starting to improve, you might be better off taking a look at the price per square foot of properties on the market, as Lew Sichelman writes in his Realty Q&A column today. 

Looking at the price per square foot is a great equalizer because it adjusts for the mix of homes in an area, he writes. It doesn’t allow for skewing of the data when more houses are selling at one side of the price spectrum over the other. 

To that end, Lew took a look at data from a valuation services firm and found that prices on a per-square-foot basis rose in 78 of the country’s 100 most active housing markets over the last three-month period. Markets including Phoenix; Fort Myers, Fla.; San Jose and Detroit are rebounding well, he adds. 

Read all these home-price stories in this week’s Real Estate pages, plus read a Home Economics on how you can easily slow down approval of your FHA mortgage if the property you want doesn’t meet certain requirements. And discover the 10 best U.S. suburbs to live in.
Amy Hoak , Real Estate writer

More Evidence of Housing Recovery


Sept. 28, 2012, 6:44 a.m. EDT

More evidence of housing recovery

Price per square foot rising in most active markets










Realty Q&A is a weekly column in which Lew Sichelman, a nationally syndicated columnist who has been covering the housing market for more than 40 years, responds to readers’ questions on real estate. 

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)—Here’s another sign that a housing recovery is afoot: Prices on a per-square-foot basis rose in 78 of the nation’s 100 most active housing markets over the latest three-month period, according to the latest figures from the field. 

For the most part, price-per-foot increases were in single digits. But several “core-based statistical areas,” including formerly downtrodden places like Phoenix and Fort Myers, Fla., notched strong double-digit gains, according to data from Pro Teck Valuation Services of Waltham, Mass. 

When it comes to studying house prices, price per square foot is the great equalizer because it adjusts for product mix, a phenomenon that skews other so called “rip-and-read” indexes when more houses at one end of the price spectrum are selling at a greater clip than the other. 

Median house costs are interesting, said Michael Sklarz of Collateral Advisors, which supplies Pro Teck’s data. “But if you want to know how much houses are for, you need to know their price per square foot.” 

Why? Because it “normalizes” for swings in product type and size, it presents a truer picture of the market. And because Pro Teck’s figures are more current than anything else available, they also offer another advantage. 

Numbers from other indexes can be as much as three to six months old. But Pro Teck says it catches sales data straight from 850 local multiple listing services nationwide almost immediately. Once a deal closes, it is captured in the database, which is updated at least once a day and culled 15 days after the end of each month. 

Pro Teck’s numbers aren't without their drawbacks. For example, new-home sales, which tend to lead the market up and follow it down, aren't fully captured. But in that savvy builders these days are listing their products on local MLSs—790 of the 9,292 current listings in the immediate Washington area are for brand new houses—Pro Teck catches at least some builder sales. 

Pro Teck’s numbers also are more detailed than any others, drilling down deep into ZIP Codes and neighborhoods. National numbers make for great headlines, but they are absolutely worthless for buyers and sellers who need to know what’s going on in their local markets. 

The Massachusetts company sells its data to investors, lenders and loan servicers, which is another shortcoming. Government figures are preferable to those from a private concern trying to make a profit from them. 

But in that all real estate is local, Pro Teck’s statistics are as good as they come. A core-based statistical area is defined by Uncle Sam as a geographic “micropolitan” area of at least 10,000 people who are tied to the urban center by commuting. 

Here’s some of what the company’s figures for the three-month period ended Aug. 1 tell us:
  • Phoenix and Fort Myers, Fla. are rebounding very well, as are San Jose and Detroit.
  • The median price per square foot paid in Phoenix rose by a whopping 31.2% from the same period a year ago, from $64.03 to $84.01. Interestingly, the median price in the Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale CBSA was up 31.36% over the same period, from $118,000 to $155,000.
  • In the Fort Myers CBSA, the median square foot cost was up 19.4%, from $59.46 to $71.
  • In the San Jose, Calif.-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSA, the median price per square foot rose almost 19%, from $377.86 to $449.51. Nearly $450 a foot is a lot to pay for a house, which is why the median sales price in San Jose was $765,375 as of Aug. 1.
  • But it’s even more expensive in the neighboring CBSA of San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, where the median price per square foot is $476.95, up 5.9% from a year earlier.
  • The Detroit area also is showing signs of a strong recovery. The average cost per square foot in the Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn CBSA rose by 16.4%, from $41.54 to $48.34, while the price in Warren, Mich.-Troy-Farmington Hills increased by 10.3%, from $68.01 to $75.
Overall, prices were up by double digits in eight CBSAs. On the flip side, none of the 22 core areas which registered lower prices per square foot over the past three months saw more than an 8% decline. The largest slides were in Gary, Ind., down 7.8%, and Birmingham, Ala., at minus 6.4%.
For what it’s worth, the median price per foot for the 100 most active markets combined was $89.75 as of Aug. 1, a 2.5% increase from $87.44 at the same time a year ago. 

Nationally syndicated columnist Lew Sichelman has been covering the housing market for more than 40 years. MarketWatch readers are encouraged to send their real estate questions to him at lsichelman@aol.com. Answers will be presented in this column every Friday. However, because of the volume of email he receives, he cannot answer every reader’s query.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

High-end home sales surge




Written by Dale News
Oct 09
citizen-times.com



ASHEVILLE —High-end home sales and construction have surged since August, signaling the hard-hit housing market may finally be on the upswing from the Great Recession, local brokers and builders say.The sale of million-dollar-plus properties doubled in Buncombe County to 19 this August versus eight in August 2011.

“We’re beating records going back five years. We sold more units this August than we did in August 2007,” said Neal Hanks, president of Beverly-Hanks &Associates.

The Cliffs at Walnut Cove in Avery’s Creek has 30 homes under construction or review —double what the golf course community had previously seen at any one time, said Kent Smith, of Walnut Cove Realty.The benefits spread beyond just jobs in the hard-hit construction sector, which has struggled since the 2008 financial meltdown.“New homes don’t just support construction,” said Tom Tveidt, an economist with SYNEVA Economics in Waynesville. “There’s continual demand after people move in that helps support retail and all other businesses.”

“What’s made the Asheville economy unique is not just our strong health care and manufacturing sectors, but people moving to the area,” Tveidt said.

The building of one house alone can employ 40 people, Smith said.

“There’s a guy doing the framing, another doing the electrical, another driving the truck and so on,” he said. “These houses are bringing money into Asheville, and it doesn’t stop after the home is built.”The building boomlet started in the spring, at least for C. Skip Brewer, a state accredited builder and owner of Walnut Cove Builders.

Brewer is at work on a million-dollar home now and has two more projects in planning. “We’re able to put subcontractors back to work, and they are grateful.”

Buyers are interested in lots at higher-end developments that survived the fallout from the Great Recession, including the Cliffs at Walnut Cove, Southcliff, The Ramble and Biltmore Lake and elsewhere.

And those who have bought lots in those developments are starting to build now.

“People had been sitting on the fence before,” Brewer said. “This has been our most positive year since 2008.”

At The Ramble, 16 homes ranging from $780,000-$2 million are under construction, raising the total to 110 homes in the development with more in the pipeline, said Brad Galbraith, vice president of community development at Biltmore Farms.Biltmore Lake has seen contracts for 12 homes averaging $330,000-$500,000 since August.

“We’ve had 21 contracts so far this year, and we’re entering the height of the fall market, which creates a lot of home sales,” Galbraith said.

The story is repeated at Fairview’s Southcliff, which has sold half of the 144 single family lots.

“We have five homes under construction and five in review. We’ve doubled our sales since last year,” said Mike Romero, of Beverly-Hanks’ Southcliff office.

Asheville’s housing comeback can be credited in part to strengthening markets around the country.

“There’s a lot of pent-up demand. People in Chicago and Florida and Texas are able to sell their homes and make the move to Asheville,” Romero said.

Nationally, existing home sales in August were the strongest since May 2011, rising 7.8 percent for the month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.82 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Dale Akins, president of The Market Edge based in Knoxville, Tenn., saw construction picking up steam across the region beginning in January.

Construction up, too

Western North Carolina has seen an increase in residential building permits as well as markets in the rest of North and South Carolina.

Buncombe issued 303 permits for the first two quarters of 2012, up 18.8 percent from over the same period last year.

Third quarter figures won’t be available until later this month.

In 2011, Buncombe issued 512 permits, significantly down from the peak of the building bubble with 1,749 permits in 2007 before the Great Recession.

Akins doesn’t expect numbers to return to those pre-recession levels “because that market was unsustainable.”

“We reached the bottom in July 2010, and we’ve seen a steady climb since then,” Akins said.

The rise in building permits could translate into improving job figures for the Asheville area within the next quarter or two, depending on the lag “between issuing the permit and actually putting nails in wood,” Tveidt said.

“It may be trickling through the economy now,” he said.

Malcolm Morgan, of Morgan-Keefe Builders, sees more interest with clients coming into the market, ready to go ahead with building plans that may have been postponed for years.

“We’ve built up a base of good subcontractors. So, we’re hopeful things are going to loosen up in the market for our subs and vendors, all of us having struggled for so many years.”

Along with historically low interest rates, the cost of building materials and labor is lower than the housing boom around 2005, Brewer said.

“Then there was spike in costs with no end in sight, but now the roller-coaster has come back to the bottom,” he said. “That makes it a great time to build a house.”

After years of sluggish sales, Galbraith remained somewhat cautious about saying that the market had finally turned a corner.

“I don’t know how many corners there are, but I’m definitely not a pessimist,” he said.

Hanks said almost 10 months of improved sales make him feel more confident about the housing market.

“There’s a strong trend. We’re seeing movement in the upper end homes —that was the area had that had been very sluggish,” he said. “We’re still going to have some dips, but the recovery is clearly on the way.”

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

How The Housing Recovery Will Take Shape In Coming Months

More good news on the home front.  The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicates that home prices gained 1.6% in July compared to a year earlier. Every city tracked in the 20-City Composite has seen prices rise for three straight months and 16 of the 20 cities saw year-over-year increases. “The positive news in both the monthly and annual rates of change in home prices over the past few months signals a possible recovery in the housing market,” noted David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a statement.

Blitzer is the latest housing expert to toss around the “r” word.  Last week, for example, the National Association of Realtors  reported that existing home sales climbed about 9%  nationally in August from a year earlier. “The housing market is steadily recovering with consistent increases in both home sales and median prices,” explained Lawrence Yun, chief economist of NAR.

A growing pile of data indicates that that national-level recovery is solidifying into a reality (albeit one taking dramatically different shape on a more local level across the country). In addition to the Case-Shiller index and NAR’s sales report, new home construction — a forward-looking indicator of housing market activity — is making a comeback.

 August single family home starts are up a hefty 29% since last year, according to the Census Bureau, despite missing analysts’ estimates. Home-builders’ confidence hit its highest level in more than six years this month, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Companies like Lennar, the second-largest home builder in the U.S., have been reporting surprisingly positive quarterly earnings thanks to an uptick in both orders and selling prices, according to my colleague Abram Brown. And Fannie Mae economists estimate that residential investment in 2012 will positively contribute to gross domestic product for the first time since 2005.

 All that good news begs the question: what can we expect from housing in the coming months?

“We got to the point where housing couldn’t fall any farther,” notes John Canally, an investment strategist for LPL Financial. “Seven years into it and we are finally seeing a turnaround — but it will be modest at best.”

Canally likens the national-level housing market recovery to a “crooked U” in shape: home prices fell dramatically from 2006 through 2009, then bounced along an uneven bottom (falling a bit more following the expiration of the 2010 home buyer tax credits) for three years before finally beginning to turn upward in recent months.

Lauren Pressman, director of real estate at Aspiriant, also believes housing is making a U-shaped rebound. “It does seem that we are on solid ground for a recovery, or least no more continued depreciation in home prices in most markets,” says Pressman. Yet she doesn’t expect prices to rise dramatically any time soon, thanks to the lackluster jobs market, an overhang of distressed shadow inventory, and ongoing credit issues.

Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, has expectations that echo Pressman’s. “We think the bottom is going to be a long flat affair where home value appreciation over the next two to four years, depending on the market, will be in the 1-3%  range,” explains Humphries. Zillow’s formal home value projection (which includes all homes, listed for sale and off the market) entails a 1.1% rate of appreciation from June 2012 through June 2013. Humphries believes a healthy (non-bubble) 2.5-5% rate of appreciation won’t kick in until sometime between 2014 and 2016.

Yet housing inventory levels are down and new construction will take years to move through the development pipeline. Realtors in some markets, like Phoenix, Miami and San Francisco, even report bidding wars. The rapidly diminishing supply of sought-after inventory has some analysts making larger projections. NAR estimates prices of existing homes will rise 10% cumulatively over the next two years. Barclays equity research division warns that a possible shortage of quality inventory could even fuel a “dramatic, multi-year recovery in home prices that could drive prices up 5% to 7% per year through 2015,” according to my colleague Agustino Fontevecchia.

Still, a handful of factors arguably stand in the way. Down payments and tight lending standards remain huge hurdles for aspiring home buyers right now. So does job certainty.

And while the Federal Reserve’s recently announced plan to buy mortgage-backed securities will likely push mortgage rates lower, inspiring some prospective buyers to take the plunge into home ownership, other large policy issues still loom. If the so-called fiscal cliff, in which the Bush tax cuts expire and automatic spending cuts kick in, is realized at the end of this year, it could hamper home sales and new construction starts.  If economic woes worsen in Europe, the consequent downward pressure to the U.S. economy could impact housing similarly. The same could be said of spikes in inflation or energy prices.

So how will this housing recovery take shape? It will be a localized recovery in which some markets clock bigger gains than others.  Markets like Phoenix and Miami will continue to log notable gains; markets like Chicago and Atlanta will continue to struggle as distressed inventory filters out into the market. Overall, however, many markets are stabilizing and beginning to reflect positive growth. That growth will translate into a humble increase in the annualized rate of national home price appreciation for 2012. In other words, the very worst of the housing recession is finally behind us but the recovery ahead is likely a long one.

Home Sale Stats


by The KCM Crew on September 28, 2012

 

House Prices: Experts Becoming More Optimistic

by The KCM Crew on October 1, 2012 ·

Each quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a
“distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their 4-year expectations for future home prices in the United States.”
Here are the latest survey results.
Price appreciation/depreciation expected over the next four years:
  • 2012: 2.31%
  • 2013: 2.44%
  • 2014: 3.25%
  • 2015: 3.43%
Fiserv also released a report projecting home prices to appreciate at an average of 3.7% annually over the next five years.
The average pre-bubble (1987-1999) annual appreciation was 3.6%