Taken from the KCM Blog...
House Prices: Where They Will Be in the Spring
Disclaimer:
This blog covers the national housing market as a whole. Please check
with a local real estate professional to discover how the following
information will impact your region. – The KCM Crew
Many sellers want to wait until the spring before putting their home on the market. This might be for any of several reasons:
- They don’t want to be inconvenienced during the holiday season.
- They believe that they will see more potential buyers and as a result will get a higher price.
- In the northern part of the country, they might not want people walking through the snow and then into their house.
- All of the above
In a normal real estate market, this may make sense. However, this
market has been anything but normal. This spring will also see some
abnormalities. The biggest difference will be the direction prices will
take.
In years past, the spring market would favor the seller because
increased demand would outpace any increase in supply: the number of
houses coming onto the market would not be as great as the number of
buyers newly entering the market. In most situations, when demand is
greater than supply, prices increase.
The reason this spring will be different
is that the supply of homes coming to the market will be dramatically
impacted by foreclosure properties being released by the banks. Many
believe this increase in inventory will far outweigh buyer demand. In
situations where supply is greater than demand, prices decrease.
Will This Actually Happen?
RealtyTrac, in their latest foreclosure report, explained:
“U.S. foreclosure activity has been mired down since October of last year, when the robo-signing controversy sparked a flurry of investigations into lender foreclosure procedures and paperwork. While foreclosure activity in September and the third quarter continued to register well below levels from a year ago, there is evidence that this temporary downward trend is about to change direction, with foreclosure activity slowly beginning to ramp back up.
This will impact prices.
What Do Experts Believe the Impact Will Be?
Here are the pricing projections by several major entities:
- Zillow believes we will not see a bottom in prices until the first quarter of 2012.
- Standard & Poors thinks prices will drop %5 in the next few months.
- JP Morgan Chase believes prices will depreciate 6 to 7% over the next six months.
- Barclays says prices will fall 7% by the end of the first quarter of 2012.
Bottom Line
You may pay a hefty price for the convenience of not having your property on the market right now.
