How High Will Mortgage Rates Go?

By Karen Weise on February 01, 2013

My heart beat a little faster when I read the news that the average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage reached a four-month high yesterday, at 3.53 percent for a loan. As a renter, I couldn’t help but wonder if I’m missing out on this once-in-a-lifetime chance to borrow for next to nothing.
Rates are now up almost a quarter-point from the mid-November record low of 3.31 percent, but looking into the numbers, it’s clear that I shouldn’t be worried. Mortgage rates will be going up over the next two years—but not too fast, according to the most recent forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The MBA expects rates to hit 4 percent in the second quarter and 4.4 percent by the end of the year. By the end of 2014, the trade group predicts rates will scooch up a bit more, to 4.6 percent. Having rates rise more than a full percentage point does start adding up to real money in a household budget. An extra percentage point on a 30-year, $300,000 loan adds about $3,000 a year in payments.

“If the economy went into the tank, mortgage rates would go lower,” says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “That’s winning the battle but losing the war.” He says high unemployment, the slow pace of the economic rebound, and active Federal Reserve policy will continue to keep rates low.

 

But to keep this all in perspective, let’s remember that we’re still near record-low levels. Even if rates do hit 4.6 percent by the end of 2014, that’s still lower than what they were before the housing bubble. In the past 25 years, the average 30-year loan has been closer to 7 percent. Since 1972, the average rate has been 8.64 percent, pulled up by the early 1980s, when rates peaked at a brutal 18.36 percent. That’s higher than credit-card rates these days, which are unsecured loans. In 2012, buying was more affordable than ever, according to data compiled by the National Association of Realtors, which predicts 2013 will be the third best year on record. As McBride says, “everything is relative.”

Weise is a reporter for Bloomberg Businessweek in New York.  

5 Reasons You Should List Your House TODAY!

Many homeowners are waiting until the Spring ‘buying season’ to list their homes for sale. Here are five reasons why that might not make sense this year:

1.) Demand Is High

Homes are selling at a pace not seen since 2007. The most recent Existing Home Sales Report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed that annual sales in 2012 increased 9.2% over 2011. There are buyers out there right now and they are serious about purchasing.

2.) Supply Is Low

The monthly supply of houses for sale is at its lowest point (4.4 months) since May of 2005. The current month’s supply is down 21.6% from the same time last year. Historically, inventory increases dramatically in the spring. Selling now when demand is high and supply is low may garner you your best price.

3.) New Construction Is Coming Back

Over the last several years, most homeowners selling their home did not have to compete with a new construction project around the block. As the market is recovering, more and more builders are jumping back in. These ‘shiny’ new homes will again become competition as they are an attractive alternative to many purchasers.

4.) Interest Rates Are Projected to Inch Up

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association has projected mortgage interest rates will inch up approximately one full point in 2013. Whether you are moving up or moving down, your housing expense will be more a year from now if a mortgage is necessary to purchase your next home.

5.) Timelines Will Be Shorter

The dramatic increase in transactions caused many challenges to the process of buying or selling a home in 2012. We waited for inspections, dealt with last minute appraisals and prayed that the bank didn’t ask for ‘just one more piece of paper’ before issuing a commitment on the mortgage. There are fewer transactions this time of year. That means that timetables on each component of the home buying process will be friendlier for those involved in transactions over the next 90 days.

These are five good reasons why you should consider listing your house today instead of waiting.

Inventory: Only Challenge to the Real Estate Recovery

The real estate market is in the midst of a major comeback. Sales are greater than any time since 2007. Consumer confidence is increasing. Economists are now saying housing is the major tailwind to our nation’s overall economic recovery.

However, there is one major challenge that could stall the housing market: a lack of inventory.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) latest Existing Home Sales Report:

“Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 8.5 percent to 1.82 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.8 months in November, and is the lowest housing supply since May of 2005 when it was 4.3 months, which was near the peak of the housing boom.

Listed inventory is 21.6 percent below a year ago when there was a 6.4-month supply. Raw unsold inventory is at the lowest level since January 2001 when there were 1.78 million homes on the market.”

A recent survey by Redfin reveals that the challenge seems to be continuing into 2013. New listings taken in the first 14 days of the year decreased by 30% as compared to the first two weeks of 2012.

A lack of supply will be good news for prices in the short term. However, for a long term recovery in housing, an increase in current inventory is crucial.

Home prices see best yearly gain since 2006

By Leah Schnurr

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home prices rose in November to rack up their best yearly gain since the housing crisis began, a further sign that the sector is on the mend.
But data on consumer confidence on Tuesday was less encouraging, with moods falling to their lowest level in more than a year as Americans became more pessimistic about the economic outlook and their financial prospects.

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.6 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with economists' forecasts.
Prices in the 20 cities rose 5.5 percent year over year, making for the strongest yearly price increase since August 2006 when prices were on their way down.

"This is continuing a trend in place for the better part of a year," said Omair Sharif, U.S. economist at RBS Securities in New York. "This is another indication that the housing rebound is fairly entrenched at this point."

The housing market became a bright spot for the economy last year as prices rose and inventory tightened. The sector is expected to contribute to economic growth in 2013, though a number of challenges remain, including tight access to mortgages and on-going foreclosures.

It was the 10th month in a row that prices have increased, the longest string of gains since before 2006. Last year's rise in prices beat a nine-month consecutive run in 2009 and 2010, when the market was boosted by a homebuyer tax credit.

Separate data from The Conference Board showed an index of consumer attitudes fell to 58.6 in January from an upwardly revised 66.7 the month before, falling short of economists' expectations for 64. It was the lowest level since November 2011.

At the start of the year, U.S. politicians came to an agreement that averted the so-called fiscal cliff of spending cuts and tax increases that had been set to come into effect.

But the deal did raise taxes for many Americans, while a payroll tax holiday came to an end. Also, a number of budget decisions remain.

"Consumers are probably pretty unhappy to notice that their payroll taxes have gone up," said David Sloan, economist at 4Cast Ltd in New York.

U.S. stocks pared slight gains immediately after the report was released, while the euro rose to a session high against the dollar.

The expectations index tumbled to its lowest level since October 2011 at 59.5 from 68.1. The present situation measure slipped to 57.3 from 64.6.

Consumers' views on the labor market were also weaker, with the "jobs hard to get" index rising for the first time since September.

Home prices on a non-adjusted basis slipped 0.1 percent. The non-adjusted numbers showed prices fell in about half of the cities covered by the survey, with the winter months typically a weak period for housing, the survey said.

Phoenix, which saw its housing market rebound sharply last year, led with the biggest yearly gain at 22.8 percent. New York was the only city to fall, down 1.2 percent from the previous year.
(Additional reporting by Richard Leong and Chris Reese; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

5 Real Estate Trends to Look For in 2013

Predicting trends during volatile economic times in American is no easy task. However, we are going to give it our best shot. We strongly believe these are the five real estate items we should keep an eye on in 2013:

Demand for Housing Will Continue to Surge

The housing market has turned the corner and there is no reason to believe that buyer demand will not maintain momentum throughout 2013. Household formations shot up to boom-time levels in 2012 and are projected to increase at even a faster rate over the next twelve months. A lack of inventory will be more of a challenge to sales increases than will a lack of demand.

Generations X and Y Will Prove They Believe in Homeownership

Contrary to what many have hypothesized over the last few years, young adults (18-35 year olds) are just as committed to homeownership as previous generations. Recent studies have shown:

• 43% already own a home
• 72% see homeownership as part of their personal American Dream
• 93% of those currently renting plan to buy a home

This, along with the increase in household formations mentioned above, makes us believe that 2013 will be the year that many of these young adults will jump into homeownership.

Prices Will Continue to Increase

Pricing of any item is determined by supply and demand. Demand for housing will remain strong throughout 2013. At the same time, the supply of homes ready for is shrinking in many parts of the country. Outside of a few states that still have challenges with large inventories of distressed properties (NY, NJ, CT, IL for example), prices will appreciate nicely.
Even in the areas that are still dealing with high percentages of foreclosures and short sales, prices will not tumble dramatically. The increase in demand will absorb much of this inventory. In these areas, prices will either flatten or perhaps soften to a small degree.

Move-Up Sellers Will Return in Great Numbers

Perhaps what many will find as the biggest surprise of 2013 will be the return of the ‘move-up’ seller. Over the last several years negative equity has prevented many of these sellers from moving up to the house of their dreams. However, with prices recovering, more and more of these sellers will realize that now may be their greatest opportunity to make the move to a lifestyle they always wanted.
With home prices expected to increase and more stringent mortgage qualifications (QR and QRM) scheduled to be announced this year, we believe that the first half of the year will bring many of these sellers/buyers to the market.

The Consumer Will Demand That Their Agent Be an Expert

Real Estate professionals who have invested the money, time and energy to truly understand what is happening and why it is happening will separate themselves from their competition and do very well this year.
Those who take that next step of learning how to simply and effectively communicate the market to their clients will be seen as experts. These industry leaders will dominate their markets.

Housing: Year End Reports Reveal Market Coming Back

Every year-end housing report revealed that the real estate market is recovering quite nicely. Here is a quick synopsis of each:

Existing Home Sales Report

• Total existing-home sales rose 5.9 percent in November over last month
• Sales are 14.5 percent higher than November 2011
• Sales are at the highest level since November 2009
• The national median existing-home price was $180,600 in November, up 10.1 percent from November 2011
• Total housing inventory at the end of November fell to a 4.8-month supply; it was 5.3 months in October, and is the lowest housing supply since September of 2005 when it was 4.6 months

Pending Sales Report

• Pending home sales increased in November for the third straight month and reached the highest level in two-and-a-half years
• The index is at the highest level since April 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit
• With the exception of several months affected by tax stimulus, the last time there was a higher reading was in February 2007
• On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales have risen for 19 consecutive months

New Home Sales Report

• Sales of new homes rose 4.4% in November to a two-and-a-half-year high
• This is the highest level since April 2010, when a temporary tax credit boosted demand.
• Sales are now 15.3% higher compared to one year ago

Case Shiller Home Price Index

• Home prices rose 4.3% in the 12 months ending in October
• In nineteen of the 20 cities covered, annual returns in October were higher than September

How Small Cutbacks Lead to Great Savings [INFOGRAPHIC]